For anyone interested in the Academy Awards perhaps the greatest fun in watching the show is predicting who the winners will be. As this article in the New York Times states:
The Academy Awards ceremony will emphasize the suspense of the unknown on Sunday night. But Hollywood insiders are well aware that many nominees have little chance of winning — and know who those nominees are.
Not only will the award for best picture most likely go to “Birdman” or “Boyhood,” but the best director award also seems destined for one of those two films. Eddie Redmayne (“The Theory of Everything”) will probably win best actor, though Michael Keaton (“Birdman”) has a shot. The other acting categories — best actress, best supporting actress and best supporting actor — appear to offer even less suspense, with Julianne Moore (“Still Alice”), Patricia Arquette (“Boyhood”) and J. K. Simmons (“Whiplash”) each a runaway favorite.
There is nothing new, of course, about Hollywood going into Oscar night with a very good idea of what will happen. That’s been the case for years. The new development is that any of the rest of us who want to know the likely outcomes can do so, with nothing fancier than an Internet connection. (Continued at: “Before Oscar Night, Playing the Odds With a Bettor’s Mind-Set”– NY Times)
In that spirit I thought it might be fun for readers to pick their winners from the following list of nominees and post them in the comment section.
For the sake of brevity, I’ll simply bold and underline my picks from the following categories:
BEST PICTURE
“American Sniper”
“Birdman”
“Boyhood”
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“The Imitation Game”
“Selma”
“The Theory of Everything”
“Whiplash”
BEST ACTOR
Steve Carrell, “Foxcatcher”
Bradley Cooper, “American Sniper”
Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Imitation Game”
Michael Keaton, “Birdman”
Eddie Redmayne, “The Theory of Everything”
BEST ACTRESS
Marion Cotillard, “Two Days, One Night”
Felicity Jones, “The Theory of Everything”
Julianne Moore, “Still Alice”
Rosamund Pike, “Gone Girl”
Reese Witherspoon, “Wild”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert Duvall, “The Judge”
Edward Norton, “Birdman”
Ethan Hawke, “Boyhood”
Mark Ruffalo, “Foxcatcher”
J.K. Simmons, “Whiplash”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Patricia Arquette, “Boyhood”
Laura Dern, “Wild”
Keira Knightley, “The Imitation Game”
Emma Stone, “Birdman”
Meryl Streep, “Into the Woods”
BEST DIRECTOR
Alejando G. Inarritu, “Birdman”
Richard Linklater, “Boyhood”
Bennett Miller, “Foxcatcher”
Wes Anderson, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Morton Tyldum, “The Imitation Game”
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. & Armando Bo, “Birdman”
Richard Linklater, “Boyhood”
E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman, “Foxcatcher”
Wes Anderson, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Dan Gilroy, “Nightcrawler”
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Jason Hall, “American Sniper”
Graham Moore, “The Imitation Game”
Paul Thomas Anderson, “Inherent Vice”
Anthony McCarten, “The Theory of Everything”
Damien Chazelle, “Whiplash”
BEST ANIMATED FEATURED FILM
“Big Hero 6”
“The Boxtrolls”
“How to Train Your Dragon 2”
“Song of the Sea”
“The Tale of the Princess Kaguya”
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Emmanuel Lubezki, “Birdman”
Robert Yeoman, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Lukasz Zal and Ryszard Lenczewski, “Ida”
Dick Pope, “Mr. Turner”
Roger Deakins, “Unbroken”
BEST FILM EDITING
Joel Cox and Gary D. Roach, “American Sniper”
Sandra Adair, “Boyhood”
Barney Pilling, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
William Goldenberg, “The Imitation Game”
Tom Cross, “Whiplash”
BEST SOUND EDITING
Richard King, “Interstellar”
Becky Sullivan and Andrew DeCristofaro, “Unbroken”
Brent Burge and Jason Canovas, “The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies”
Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman, “American Sniper”
Martin Hernandez and Aaron Glascock, “Birdman”
BEST SOUND MIXING
Gary A. Rizzo, Gregg Landaker and Mark Weingarten, “Interstellar”
Craig Mann, Ben Wilkins and Thomas Curley, “Whiplash”
Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montano and Thomas Varga, “Birdman”
John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Walt Martin, “American Sniper”
Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montano and David Lee, “Unbroken”
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Dennis Gassner (Production Design) and Anna Pinnock (Set Decoration), “Into the Woods”
Adam Stockhausen (Production Design) and Anna Pinnock (Set Decoration), “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Nathan Crowley (Production Design) and Gary Fettis (Set Decoration),”Interstellar”
Maria Djurkovic (Production Design) and Tatiana Macdonald (Set Decoration), “The Imitation Game”
Suzie Davies (Production Design) and Charlotte Watts (Set Decoration),”Mr. Turner”
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Milena Canonero, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Mark Bridges, “Inherent Vice”
Colleen Atwood, “Into the Woods”
Anna B. Sheppard and Jane Clive, “Maleficient”
Jacqueline Durran, “Mr. Turner”
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Hans Zimmer, “Interstellar”
Alexandre Desplat, “The Imitation Game”
Johann Johannsson, “The Theory of Everything”
Alexandre Desplat, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Gary Yershon, “Mr Turner”
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Glory” by Common and John Legend, “Selma”
“Lost Stars” by Gregg Alexander, Danielle Brisebois, Nick Lashley and NickSouthwood, “Begin Again”
“Everything Is Awesome” by Shawn Patterson, “The LEGO Movie”
“I’m Not Gonna Miss You,” by Glen Campbell, “Glenn Campbell: I’ll Be Me”
“Grateful,” “Beyond the lights”
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
“Foxcatcher”
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“Guardians of the Galaxy”
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Colleen Atwood, “Into the Woods”
Anna B. Sheppard, “Maleficent”
Milena Canonero, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Jacqueline Durran, “Mr. Turner”
Mark Bridges, “Inherent Vice”
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Ian Hunter and Scott Fisher, “Interstellar”
Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett and Erik Winquist, “Dawn of the Planet of the Apes”
Stephane Ceretti, Nicolas Aithadi, Jonathan Fawkner and Paul Corbould, “Guardians of the Galaxy”
Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Bryan Grill and Dan Sudick, “Captain America: Winter Soldier”
Richard Stammers, Lou Pecora, Tim Crosbie and Cameron Waldbauer, “X-Men: Days of Future Past”
Nicole Plyler Fisk
Gene Howington
FFS Guest Blogger
Joy of Fishes
Chuck Stanley
shortfinals
Terry Welshans
ann li-summers
wordcloud9
Flowers For Socrates 
Okay Gene,
I accept the challenge let’s see how I do:
Best Picture: Boyhood
Best Actor: Eddie Reddmayne in a walk.
Best Actress: Rosamund Pike, but Patricia Arquette should have been nominated in this slot.
Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons, “Whiplash”
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette
Best Director: Richard Linklater
Best Original Screenplay: Boyhood
Best Adapted Screenplay: Inherent Vice, read Pynchon’s book and the movie was excellent.
Best Animated Feature: “How to Train Your Dragon 2″
Best Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki, “Birdman”
Best Editing: Boyhood
Best Sound Editing: Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman, “American Sniper” (didn’t see the movie, but this is a place where the Academy can reward a moneymaker)
Best Sound Mixing: John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Walt Martin, “American Sniper” (as above)
Best Production Design: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Best Costume Design: Milena Canonero, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Best Original Score: Alexandre Desplat, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Best Original Song: “Glory” by Common and John Legend, “Selma”
Best Makeup and Hair Design: “Guardians of the Galaxy – “I am groot!”
Best Visual Effects: “Guardians of the Galaxy
Overall I thought “Boyhood” was a perfect movie with no false steps and no phony drama.
“Diversity has never been the strong suit of the Academy Awards, but the overwhelming whiteness and maleness of this year’s nominees is a stark reminder of some alarming facts:
As recently as 2013, the Academy boasted 6,028 voting members. Ninety-four percent of those voting members were white. Seventy-six percent were men. The average age of an Academy voter in 2013 was 64 years old. And none of those percentages have likely shifted in the two years since. Judged against this backdrop, the decision to nominate precisely zero people of color in the acting categories is no less infuriating, but at least it begins to make sense. The Academy is in some ways deeply conservative, and it shows”
http://www.salon.com/2015/02/22/oscar_voter_or_right_wing_pundit_can_you_tell_the_difference_quiz/
BEST PICTURE
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” (simply the funniest movie I saw last year)
BEST ACTOR
Michael Keaton, “Birdman”
BEST ACTRESS
Rosamund Pike, “Gone Girl”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Edward Norton, “Birdman”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Keira Knightley, “The Imitation Game” (although Emma Stone is my choice)
BEST DIRECTOR
Wes Anderson, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Wes Anderson, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Graham Moore, “The Imitation Game”
BEST ANIMATED FEATURED FILM
“Big Hero 6″
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Robert Yeoman, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
BEST FILM EDITING
William Goldenberg, “The Imitation Game”
BEST SOUND EDITING
Richard King, “Interstellar”
BEST SOUND MIXING
Gary A. Rizzo, Gregg Landaker and Mark Weingarten, “Interstellar”
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
TIE – Adam Stockhausen (Production Design) and Anna Pinnock (Set Decoration), “The Grand Budapest Hotel” or Maria Djurkovic (Production Design) and Tatiana Macdonald (Set Decoration), “The Imitation Game”
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Milena Canonero, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Hans Zimmer, “Interstellar”
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Glory” by Common and John Legend, “Selma” (a political gimme)
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
“Guardians of the Galaxy”
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Anna B. Sheppard, “Maleficent”
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
TIE (Close call) – Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Ian Hunter and Scott Fisher, “Interstellar” or Stephane Ceretti, Nicolas Aithadi, Jonathan Fawkner and Paul Corbould, “Guardians of the Galaxy”
I should stipulate that these are predictions I am notoriously bad at making.
Wow, two for Rosamund Pike. I just saw Gone Girl last night so it’s fresh in my mind. Talk about playing a malignant C U Next Tuesday. Nonetheless, playing a person losing their identity to Alzheimer’s ain’t a walk in the park; technically or emotionally. And I’ll venture a guess that most members of the Academy have personally witnessed how the disease ravages a human mind in one way or another.
But Edward Norton in Birdman? Gene, did you not see “Whiplash”?
I like Birdman for best picture and Cumberbatch for best actor in an upset!
Regarding Sound Mixing, I ventured a guess based on the type of work that goes into mixing and mastering an album; thus “Whiplash.”
The upset I’m looking for is Keaton for Birdman. But I think Redmayne will win.
BEST ACTOR
Jake Gyllenhaal ”Night Crawler”
BEST ACTRESS
Rosamund Pike, “Gone Girl”
both were creepy as all get out.
Bron,
Gyllenhaal was superb in “Nightcrawler” which was a movie that didn’t get it “props”.
Bob’s picks are the picks most people are betting on but I hope there are some surprises. I saw Grand Budapest twice but don’t think it will pick up the best picture award. Eddie Redmayne should get best actor in my opinion but Michael Keaton is a Hollywood favorite. Of course, John Legend will pick up an award as they throw a bone to Selma after failing to include it for other awards.
Tim McGraw will sing Glen Campbell’s song at the Oscars. Glen’s illness has progressed to the point he does not understand he has been nominated, or what it means. He only speaks in short sentences now, does not recognize old friends, and has no idea he used to be one of the most famous stars in music. He is 78 years old now. His wife and children will attend the Oscars.
I lost a friend to Alzheimer’s recently. He was a Vietnam vet. One of the “Nimrods,” who flew the A-26 Invader. He flew 150 night missions over the Ho Chi Minh Trail at treetop height. A terrible disease.
http://tasteofcountry.com/glen-campbell-oscar-im-not-gonna-miss-you/
Chuck,
My father graduated second in his class from Albert Einstein School of Medicine. His was the first graduating class.
Robert S. Stone; he’s the second from the left in the 3rd (back) row in the picture on this page:
http://www.einstein.yu.edu/news/releases/354/einstein-celebrates-50th-anniversary-of-first-graduating-class/
Among other things, he was an air traffic controller in the air force, a pilot, a flight instructor, a family doctor and a Senior FAA medical examiner.
From 2006 to 2010 my mother and I looked after him 24/7 as vascular dementia took all that away from him.
Nonetheless, we kept our promise and kept him out of the nursing home.
I pick Ida to win the award for best foreign language film. Probably was the best movie I saw last year.
Bob,
Re: my first comment I stupidly failed to recognize that you did the post. Sorry.
“Gene, did you not see “Whiplash”?”
No, I did not.
Plan to see Marion Cotillard in Two Days One Night this week. Saw Whiplash and liked it a lot but found it unlikely that such abuse would be tolerated so long.
Just to illustrate a point to Bob about being able to say intelligent things about a subject without reference to any first-hand information, I will pick the major awards. I have not (and likely will not) watched any of these movies, don’t really care who wins and wont watch the show to find out, but, for all that, my picks actually have science (or at least statistics) behind them.
Best Picture: Birdman
Best Director: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Best Actress: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
The last three are all heavy favorites, so I would be surprised if any of them lost (I hope J.K. Simmons wins–I like him–still wont see the movie, though). Apropos of nothing, if American Sniper wins best picture, it will be the biggest upset of the last 25 years.
Now I’m not trying to show that I can make better predictions than Bob (indeed, all but one of our picks are the same), but rather to show that, with about one minute’s time and a link I have bookmarked (to FiveThirtyEight), I was able to find predictions from a trusted source using a scientific methodology. Obviously, what I came up with is at least as credible as Bob’s own predictions, yet by the standards he has tried to apply to my comments regarding Ferguson, the insight I offered is unreliable.
Bob,
You have expertise in the law, and I respect that, but my expertise lies in data science and predictive modeling. This means that not only can I use my skills to ferret out a specific genetic marker in 200 million sequence reads of about 100 nucleotides each, but I can also obtain a gestalt understanding of what happened in Ferguson by considering a well-chosen mix of second-hand (or greater) information, analysis and opinion without a single glance at a primary source. It means that in addition to predicting the synergistic effects of combinations of chemicals on metabolic pathways, I can seek out and identify other people using scientific methodology to make predictions and confidently repeat their conclusions. I may not be right, but mine were the best predictions given the available data for a quantifiable definition of “best”. Can you say as much?
Bob,
According to FiveThirtyEight’s article (linked above), Eddie Redmayne is a 2.28 to 1.13 favorite (0.91 to others). This difference (1.15) would put it a bit below Shakespeare in Love beating out Saving Private Ryan (1.6) as compared to the 2.8 difference between Birdman and American Sniper or the 2.0 between Julianne Moore and Reese Witherspoon. That looks like about a 47% chance of an upset for Best Actor and a 26%chance of an upset by Keaton in particular.
The one thing about Keaton that needs to be kept in mind is that to many in the voting community he “is due” whereas Redmayne is a relative newcomer. He may swing sympathy votes.
Slarti:
That is a pretty bold statement.
Bron,
I don’t think anything I said was particularly bold. Except for the bit at the end about percentages (which is a bit of statistical voodoo that I thought helped convey the size of the numbers), it was all merely repeating the results of someone using a documented scientific methodology*. Betting on science may be the smart thing to do, but bold?
* And tweaking Bob’s nose, but that shouldn’t be a surprise to you.
We shall see in the cold light of morning [and it is damn cold].
Kevin,
I originally had a parenthetical reading (Do try to make your predictions before reading those of the odds makers). I apparently deleted it in the final editing.
Since the topic was picking the winners from the list above, you didn’t need first hand information about the films. In fact, for purposes of predicting the winners, relying on the odds makers, that have proven themselves rather reliable in the past, is perfectly acceptable.
Relying upon second hand information provided by those with as much ignorance of the primary materials as you is where you run into trouble.
“Grand Budapest” was visually and conceptually fascinating but it wasn’t nearly as entertaining as “Birdman” or “Whiplash.”
J.K. Simmons performance in “Whiplash” was amazing.
I’m not sure if the complexities of making “Boyhood” fall under directing or producing. But it seems to me that the demands of preserving the continuity in “Birdman” must have been incredibly difficult. So that’s why I’m thinking “Birdman” gets the nod for best director and cinematography.
Neil Patrick Harris rocks! Great opening number
I haven’t seen one of the nominated films…and I’m not watching the Oscars show. Call me a stick in the mud. I’ll watch the movies at home when they are available On Demand.
Elaine,
I usually just watch the opening number and then move on.
Bob said:
“I originally had a parenthetical reading (Do try to make your predictions before reading those of the odds makers). I apparently deleted it in the final editing.
Which is quite irrelevant since I didn’t consult any odds makers or betting markets before making my picks. That you don’t understand the distinction or don’t recognize its significance is an indicator that you are, shall we say, somewhat less than an expert regarding how scientific predictions are made.
Since the topic was picking the winners from the list above, you didn’t need first hand information about the films. In fact, for purposes of predicting the winners, relying on the odds makers, that have proven themselves rather reliable in the past, is perfectly acceptable.
Again, I didn’t rely on odds makers, I relied on knowledgeable people applying scientific methodologies to empirical data. What this did not include is any analysis or opinion regarding the technical or artistic merits of the films. That’s why I wasn’t making a “bold statement” as Bron suggests. What he doesn’t understand (and you may not either) is that I know now that my predictions were good, all we’ll find later tonight is whether or not they were accurate. In other words, my predictions were the result of a scientific methodology applied to empirical data. That puts them in a different class than pundits, who rely on their own nebulous “expertise” or odds makers who set the odds based on what maximizes their profits, not accuracy or betting markets which quantify the opinion of those who participate.
Relying upon second hand information provided by those with as much ignorance of the primary materials as you is where you run into trouble.”
Actually, I don’t. Because I use sources that aren’t ignorant of the primary materials and evaluate all my sources on the basis of their knowledge and expertise. Your problems arise when you try to generalize, invariably making a straw man and a fool of yourself. You don’t have an example of how my personal ignorance of the primary sources has ever compromised the point I was trying to make (of course, most of the time you studiously ignore whatever point I was trying to make) and the few times I’ve been caught out on factual matters I have readily accepted correction and modified my arguments as necessary.
I am aware of the limitations of myself and my sources which allows me to obtain some objectivity in my reasoning. On the other hand, your unwillingness to consider the broader context of events, the possibility that some of your opponents might have a valid point or the validity of the myriad assumptions you make pretty much guarantees that your analyses lack insight, your opinions lack fairness and your predictions lack rigor.
Is any of this important? Have your fun, but get a grip at the same time.
I can be flamed at : gbk@flamebox2.tv
Elaine beat me to it. I haven’t seen any of the movies. I’m still trying to get a good bootleg of “Fury”.
Chuck,
When I heard Tug McGraw sing “I’m Not Gonna Miss You” by Glen Campbell last night, I was truly hoping it would win Best Song.
Bob,
I did too, but if you get right down to the song, it was not all that memorable. Keep in mind that Glen Campbell wrote it as his Alzheimer’s was getting worse. If it had won, it would have been because of sentiment, not quality. Kind of like when John Wayne got his Oscar for True Grit.
Looking at Oscar music awards of recent years, very few of them rise to the level of great songs like High Noon, Lara’s Theme from Dr. Zhivago, or The Windmills of Your Mind. Oscar winners from eighty years ago are still being performed. Lullaby of Broadway won the 1935 Oscar for best song. How many current winners or nominees will be performed regularly in the year 2095?
http://www.salon.com/2015/02/23/sean_hannity_and_others_freaking_out_about_american_snipers_oscar_loss/“Divisive film “American Sniper” took home a single Academy Award on Sunday night. Naturally, Sean Hannity and others were quick to come up with their reasons why this movie, which is about the deadliest American sniper, did not nab top honors: “liberal Hollywood.” “
It of course had nothing to do with the fact that it was a middling piece of work at best, Smom.
Hannity. 🙄
I tend to vote these kind of things based on what I like, so I’m not to disappointed when my predictions don’t match the outcome. I do wish “The Grand Budapest Hotel” had shown a bit better though. It was extremely well written, but I can’t cast too much shade on the “Birdman” script either. It was quality material. GBH did win for best production design which as a fan of how the sausage is made in Hollywood was a satisfying win. And Anderson’s movies always have such a unique look. I think that is a part of their appeal as much as the strange material. “Birdman” as good as it was had a fairly conventional look.
Yes, you have to appreciate his quirky unconventional style to like the movies. I think i have seen all his movies more than a few times.