Dear Democratic Party, W.T.F. really … W.T.F. — were you in denial about the possibility of this defeat.

By ann summers

President Ham Sandwich defeats a highly qualified woman in the US 2016 POTUS election. Many voters decided that voting against something was so much more important than the possibilities of voting for something.

Now expect years and perhaps decades of reprisals, a cratered economy, civil rights rolled back, and climate change marches on.

“But mainly you used the grand jury to indict people,” Wolfe wrote, “and in the famous phrase of Sol Wachtler, chief judge of the State Court of Appeals, a grand jury would ‘indict a ham sandwich,’ if that’s what you wanted.”Nov 25, 2014


slate series culminates in a complete set



Reaction to the prospect of a Trump presidency rippled across the globe, with financial markets abroad falling as American television networks raised the prospect that Mrs. Clinton might lose. Asian markets were trading sharply lower, down around two percentage points, and in the United States, Dow Jones futures were down as much as 600 points in after-hours trading.

Several hours after polls closed, the vote margins separating Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton remained razor thin in the states that will determine the outcome of the presidential contest, with voters clearly demonstrating the polarized nature of the American electorate.…

This is being written as some states still have yet to be called but it appears that HRC will not overcome leads for Trump. HRC has conceded and the 1000 years of darkness begins.

The race in Florida is close – but Clinton can win without it, as long as she holds on to her firewall states 

Photo published for Hillary Clinton’s swing state firewall, explained

Hillary Clinton’s swing state firewall, explained

It could give her the presidency — unless Donald Trump breaches it.

The reason for the closeness of the election, despite the hyperbolic confidence for 323 EV totals is that population flying under the radar… prepper/Pepe Republicans a.k.a. Trumplorables.

Exurbs. The expression exurb (for “extra-urban”) was coined by Auguste Comte Spectorsky in his 1955 book The Exurbanites to describe the ring of prosperous communities beyond the suburbs that are commuter towns for an urban area.

The reality is that so many people are voting against their interests and defaulting to a myth of a white working class suggesting that nothing has changed since Reagan in terms of the superficiality of voter decision-making, and that some very visceral attitudes are at work now.

Also, was the Clinton campaign incompetent in underestimating certain areas much like other Democratic election failures. Alienating progressives certainly didn’t help, even as they assumed that they would ultimately return to the party.

And of course the reactionary voting of Trumpist ethno-nationalist appeals made this even more uncertain. OFA as a campaign organization apparently outperformed HFA. Would it have been that difficult to put more work into states like Wisconsin, perhaps even a campaign visit by HRC, once. Apparently resources were miscalculated or was it the usual party politics of porkbarreling campaign funds rather than actually measuring things.

Whitest U.S. counties are voting for Trump by an astonishing and unprecedented margin.

The Bradley effect (less commonly the Wilder effect) is a theory concerning observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in some United States government elections

During the early 1990s electoral contests with former Ku Klux Klan leader and Nazi sympathizer David Duke, many potential voters would not tell pollsters that they favored Duke (as they feared the ostracization that could result from being on record as being a Duke supporter), but would go on to vote for him anyway. The commentary at that time was that Duke “flies under the radar.”…

The causes of the polling errors are debated, but pollsters generally believe that perceived societal pressures have led some white voters to be less than forthcoming in their poll responses. These voters supposedly have harbored a concern that declaring their support for a white candidate over a non-white candidate will create a perception that the voter is racially prejudiced.[41][51]

The Great Recession stalled population growth in the exurbs. But new census data show that the far suburbs are enjoying a renaissance. They are now the fastest growing areas in the country.

Other exurban outposts looking to establish themselves could learn from this “Santa Fe effect,” Garreau said. “You’ve got to give them a reason to stay.”

So we now have a French election where the fears and tension of the exurban/suburban areas makes the RWNJ even more emboldened so that the clock will go back — more bigotry, more greed, more violence, and as written elsewhere, a warlord culture emboldened with greater class/social division. One group imagining that their privilege had been marginalized prepared to be manipulated by a ruling class to oppress another marginalized population. And the 1% gets to keep its stuff.

But the feeling of alienation that characterizes the French countryside has also spread to many exurban areas (zones péri-urbaines),..

But even more important is a widespread feeling of alienation and neglect, a sentiment d?abandon as the French call it. Over the last few years, the austerity politics favored by the president led to a withdrawal of the state from areas like Cantal: schools with too few pupils have been closed, hospitals with too few patients were shut down, as were post offices and even local police gendarmeries. Not only do people in those areas feel despised, but many farmers say they chafe under the regulation and rules of European agricultural policy, which features a large number of controls and checks.

No such evolution characterizes large cities, where the Front National has lost between 4 and 5 percentage points since 2007. But the feeling of alienation that characterizes the French countryside has also spread to many exurban areas (zones péri-urbaines), where many blue-collar workers and lower-grade, white-collar public or private workers have settled because they have been priced out of the main cities.

For these voters, purchasing power and the economy are as important as questions of national identity and immigration, which le Pen has woven together in a broad rhetoric against globalization and capitalism.

In these areas, as in small towns hard hit by deindustrialization, where unemployment runs high, she has persuaded a large part of what she’s called ‘invisible France’ that Sarkozy and center-left Socialist candidate François Hollande do not differ much from one another, more or less openly agreeing on globalization, deregulated free trade, and acceptance of international capitalism’s domination of economic policies.

Was the Democratic party prepared for a population sufficiently reactionary and animated on the model of Nixon and Reagan.

“Mistakes were made”

Did the Clinton campaign mistakenly take some of these states for granted?

Since the race has tightened, there’s been a bit of controversy over whether the Clinton campaign adequately protected her firewall, as Ron Brownstein writes.

Essentially, Clinton has tried to go on offense with her ad spending rather than on defense — for months, she’s been directing the vast bulk of her ad money (and her personal campaign travel) to states she doesn’t seem to actually “need” to win — states like Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, and lately Arizona.

Obviously, an effort to win states she doesn’t truly “need” is a worthwhile endeavor, but given their demographics and the way the public polling has gone, it’s generally assumed that they’re unlikely to be the states that put her over 270 electoral votes. Furthermore, if the race were to tighten nationwide by several points, those states Clinton didn’t need could slide out of reach, and the contest could come down to whether she can protect her firewall.

Yet other than Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, the firewall states have gone undefended by ad spending for months, even though Clinton’s lead in public polling of these states really was not all that big (she’s been up by 7 points or so in Michigan and Virginia, around 6 in Wisconsin, and 5 in Colorado).

Indeed, when Trump started buying ads in those latter three states this fall, the Clinton campaign ignored him for weeks — letting him go up on the airwaves unopposed.

Now that the race appears to have gotten closer, Clinton is running ads in all six firewall states (as of this week), but nervous Democrats are wondering whether she should have invested in them more in the previous months, to better protect her flank from a surprise late surge by Trump.

James Carville opining on the loss: “They actually thought the temperament issue would win it out”

There are 3 types of American nationalists. Which one is Donald Trump? 

Photo published for These Are the 3 Types of American Nationalism

These Are the 3 Types of American Nationalism

We think of nationalism in pretty two-dimensional terms, but it’s actually a fairly complex psychological concept.

There will be greater possibility of police violence, global terrorism, environmental degradation, everyday racism, poverty, health crises, and greater unemployment accompanied by major economic crises. So much will be rolled back.

But America will be Great Again, like it’s always been for those in charge.

In his unexpected win, Trump mobilized enormous margins among rural and exurban voters, and crushing advantages among blue-collar whites. In several cases, he prevented Clinton from making as many gains among college-educated white voters as seemed possible. That allowed Trump to overcome Clinton’s strong performance among minority voters and college-educated white women.

Trump’s winning map underscored the risk Clinton faced pouring disproportionately so many more resources into her insurance states than in some of the core states in her campaign’s preferred path to 270 electoral college votes.

As I noted last week, Clinton invested about $180 million in television ads in Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio through the end of October—and yet, in the end, lost all three. By comparison, over that period she spent only around $16 million in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Colorado; the third seemed safely in her hands as the evening progressed, but Wisconsin slipped away and Michigan wobbled, and with them went her advantage in the Electoral College….

In some traditionally Democratic states, Clinton was able to overcome this surge with strong performances among minority voters and college-educated whites. The exit polls gave her 55 percent of college whites in New Jersey and Wisconsin, 54 percent in New Hampshire, and 51 percent in Colorado, Pennsylvania, and Washington. Compared to Obama, she improved the Democratic showing among college-educated whites in Arizona, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

But in other key battlegrounds like Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Ohio she only essentially matched his performance; in Florida she slipped slightly among the white-collar whites.

Overall, the national exit poll showed her improving among college-educated whites over Obama in 2012, but only by three percentage points, and losing them narrowly to Trump. (As a result, the record of no Democrat ever winning most college-educated whites remained intact.) Despite strong performances among minority voters, that left her with too narrow a coalition to withstand the Trump blue-collar surge.

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9 Responses to Dear Democratic Party, W.T.F. really … W.T.F. — were you in denial about the possibility of this defeat.

  1. I recall another political party whose leader came to power because the opposition couldn’t get their shit together enough to keep him out of office. That history . . . she doesn’t repeat but she sure does echo. I seem to recall a green fellow I once knew said something along the lines of something horrific was going to have to happen before the American collective conscience shifts and the pendulum swings back toward humanism.

    Being right in a prognostication is more often than not a cold sort of satisfaction.

    This message brought to you by Cassandra and Pattern Recognition.

  2. wordcloud9 says:

    I have been Cassandra far too often to take any satisfaction from this debacle – been swinging between hope and despair for months – I think Comey dealt the final blows with his last-minute more-emails-she-may-be-indicted crap, ably assisted by our bought-and-paid-for “free” press.

    Four years of Donald Trump and Mike Pence will finish us as a democracy – the Supreme Court appointments will roll back civil rights to the 1920s, kill Roe v. Wade and decimate Planned Parenthood. There’ll be escalating police violence and economic chaos – and if the right-wingers thought President Obama’s executive orders were imperial, just wait until they see what Trump and Mike Pence-our-shadow-president-doing-the-real-dirty-work are capable of.

    The lesson is never.underestimate the power of blind hate, greed and what my grandfather called ‘concentrated dumbness.’ – These people have voted against their own best interest. They may be getting “what they deserve” but what about the rest of us?

  3. pete says:

    Wonder if there are any democrats in congress that will say “It is our number one priority to make sure he is a one term president.”

    Definitely need to make certain Comey doesn’t make it past the statute of limitations.

  4. wordcloud9 says:

    Undoubtedly the Democrats will try to “work with him,” and get blamed for everything that’s going to go so very wrong.

    They should start blaming Trump NOW for everything that isn’t working, for every kid killed-by-cop, for stagnant low wages, for Global Warming – the stock market just plummeted because he won, so he’s to blame for that.

    Because you know what? – He IS one of the Big Money assholes who ARE responsible for so much of what’s not getting fixed because they’ve bribed the do-nothing Republicans in Congress and the Red States to keep the money and the power flowing into their overstuffed pockets.

    I remember clearly – two weeks after President Obama was first elected, the Republicans were blaming him for the Great Recession, and he wasn’t even sworn in yet.

    Time to stop being so ‘reasonable’ and start holding the other guys accountable, over and over and over again until it finally sticks.

  5. pete says:

    Build a wall, Mexico pays for it. Rebuild inner cities, rebuild infrastructure, hospitals, roads, bridges. Lock up Hillary, defund Planned Parenthood, repeal ACA (remember pre existing conditions).

    Who gets the blame if it doesn’t go as planned, but then again, there really is no plan.

    I can’t help but remember the George W Bush plan for being re-elected. Become a war time president.

    Lookout Canada.

  6. wordcloud9 says:

    Maybe he’ll invade Grenada – that went so well last time

    • ann summers says:

      there’s gonna be more war, somewhere, or at least some idiotic invasion/peace action so DJT can get a photo-op in POTUS war-mufti, when it probably could have been avoided

  7. It was the Democrats’ embrace of neoliberalism that won it for Trump by Naomi Klein

    • ann summers says:

      exactly, I found this piece by Jim Newell at Slate explains much of the reasons for this

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