Trump as existential threat & October supplies

By ann summers

Make America Great Pumpkin has demonstrated that “Existential threats” always seem dire around election day, and as it gets closer everyone needs to reassess their own position on GOTV, and of course get concerned about voter eligibility. These are at least reasonable worries, rather than losing your jewels because your Paris apartment has poor security.

 

The NRA is currently running an ad that seems to suggest that not voting for Trump will endanger women (presumably those suburban women Trump needs). No one is safe, even in France

One hopes that there will be no mischief from within or without, but that in some ways, is a price of an actual rather than idealized democracy. Darn that de Tocqueville guy.

Rerun_Great_Pumpkin_1_.jpg

 

This election cycle now makes everyone fear all kinds of real or imagined evil doers, ranging from a crashing global economy, to skeevy character attacks, or even to #BLM graffiti artists on Pennsylvania Avenue.

Despite these fears, one should not vote because one is intimidated by: the fear of a draft, the fear of terrorists, the fear of heathens/infidels, or even the fear of socialists/communists.

One needs to GOTV because it is all about the great adventure of democracy, not because some giant orange squash and his infantile minions make us fear for that pluralism.

TOPSHOT - A man wearing a Dark Vador mask holds smoke flares during a demonstration against the French government's planned labour law reforms, on June 2, 2016 in Marseille, southern France. .France suffered a third day of rail strikes on June 2, 2016, but fears of transport chaos during the Euro 2016 football tournament eased as airport workers cancelled a walkout and a Paris subway strike had little impact. More demonstrations against the reforms -- which the government says are designed to make France more business-friendly -- took place in major cities on June 2 and workers were back on strike at 16 of the country's 19 nuclear power stations.. / AFP / ANNE-CHRISTINE POUJOULAT        (Photo credit should read ANNE-CHRISTINE POUJOULAT/AFP/Getty Images)
“It would be reckless not to consider the damage Mr. Trump might wreak.”

 

The existential fear might not even be the fear of being poor, homeless, or even the return to whatever bad days existed before, racism, sexism, classism, ageism, or whatever.

The real fear could very well be all of them all at once this time. Or not. Darn that FDR and that “fear itself” meme.

We may have to rent the nice apartment over the meth lab because we have no other choice but to flee to Canada. Darn that immigration meme.

You may not approve of everything Mr. Trump has had to say about nuclear  weapons, torture or mass deportations, but you doubt he could implement anything too radical. Congress, the courts, the Constitution — these would keep Mr. Trump in check, you think.

Well, think again. A President Trump could, unilaterally, change this country to its core. By remaking U.S. relations with other nations, he could fundamentally reshape the world, too.

“It would be reckless not to consider the damage Mr. Trump might wreak.”—@WashingtonPost: http://wapo.st/2cKUel4 

Photo published for The clear and present danger of Donald Trump

The clear and present danger of Donald Trump

The first in a series of editorials on the damage he could wreak unilaterally as president.

washingtonpost.com

 

There is a bottom line, one that could bring the nation back to every economic failure before 2007-2008. More importantly, it could be global and even universal.

Wall Street fears a Trump presidency. Stocks may lose 10 to 12 percent of their value if he wins the November election, and there may be a broader economic downturn.

These conclusions arise from close analysis of financial markets during Monday’s presidential debate, which provides a fascinating case study of the complex interconnections between American politics and economics. The market’s judgment stands in sharp opposition to Donald J. Trump’s claims that his presidency would be good for business.

Decoding these market signals is no easy task because it is difficult to disentangle correlation from causation. Ideally we would observe stock prices in parallel universes with identical economic conditions, with a single exception: In one, Mr. Trump has a good shot at becoming president, while in the other, his chances are low…

How much better would the market perform under a President Clinton than a President Trump?

Consider the rise in stock futures. At first blush, an increase of less than 1 percent doesn’t sound like much. But it points to something much bigger. After all, if a relatively small decline in the likelihood of a Trump presidency led to a modest stock rally, then a larger decline in Mr. Trump’s electoral fortunes would most likely lead to a larger market reaction. A surprise win for Mr. Trump would probably set off a substantial market correction.

stock-market-performance-us-780x439.png

 

We can be a bit more precise. According to political prediction markets, the odds of a Trump presidency fell by nearly six percentage points during the debate. By contrast, the difference between a certain Trump loss and a certain Trump win — by definition, a 100-percentage-point change in probability — is around 16 times as large as that six-percentage-point drop. It follows that the difference in the value of stocks under a President Clinton versus a President Trump is 16 times as large as Monday night’s stock market shift.

Putting the pieces together (multiplying that 16 by the percentage point rise in the S.&P. 500 value), this suggests that the market expects stock prices to be 10 to 12 percent lower if Mr. Trump wins than they will be if he loses.

This is a big difference.

What does it all mean? When economists conduct “event studies” like this, they typically do so in the hope that movements in stock prices reflect the informed bets of traders trying to assess the future profitability of the businesses they’re buying or selling. If that’s right, then Wall Street is telling us that if Mr. Trump is elected, it expects the profitability of America’s largest businesses to be about 10 to 12 percent lower on average in the future.

bloomberg_stock_returns.jpg

 

This is all the more remarkable because it occurs despite Mr. Trump’s having promised an enormous profit-raising corporate tax cut. Either the markets don’t believe he’ll deliver on these tax cuts, or they believe that the rest of his economic program will do enough harm to more than offset the benefits of lower taxes.

Unfortunately, an event study is silent as to what’s behind Wall Street’s fears. This sort of adverse market reaction might reflect concerns about Mr. Trump’s unconventional approach to the Federal Reserveworries about a possible trade warfiscal irresponsibility, apprehension about national security or simply the cost of greater uncertainty.

Wall Street fears a Trump presidency. Stocks may lose 10 to 12% of their value if he wins the November election. http://nyti.ms/2dfFhGX 

Photo published for Debate Night Message: The Markets Are Afraid of Donald Trump

Debate Night Message: The Markets Are Afraid of Donald Trump

An analysis of financial markets during the debate last Monday suggests stocks would lose 10 to 12 percent of their value if Donald Trump won the election.

nytimes.com

The wager is between the RWNJs’ view of millennials and a negative perception of Bubba’s behavior as sexual violence about which millennials might be more critical and even intelligible to Gen-Y or Gen-Z, even. Darn that data journalism, aggregating information from everywhere.

donald-trump-bill-clinton-golfing-620x324.jpg

The surprisingly logical reason Donald Trump is bringing up Bill Clinton’s sex scandals

This trend suggests that the Trump campaign has assigned a specific role for the candidate’s attacks on Bill Clinton’s sexual misconduct. They’re not deployed right off the bat, or in TV ads, but only as damage control in response to questions about his own record of mistreating women.

The best explanation we have is twofold.

  • First, the Trump campaign thinks public perceptions around the scandals like those surrounding Bill Clinton have changed in a way that might make that history extremely damaging to the Clintons’ reputation with millennials — if those millennials are briefed on what happened.
  • Second, they view making the conversation about Bill as an effective way to deflect the many, many allegations of sexism against Trump that this campaign has brought to light.

www.vox.com/…

How Trump’s ludicrous “alpha male” act is destroying him http://slnm.us/XIgwgY0 

Photo published for The alpha dog that wouldn’t hunt: How Trump’s ludicrous “alpha male” act is destroying him

The alpha dog that wouldn’t hunt: How Trump’s ludicrous “alpha male” act is destroying him

Trump’s alt-right fanboys celebrate his so-called “alpha” masculinity — but they’re the real “cucks”

salon.com

View image on Twitter

View image on Twitter

Someone tagged the Trump International Hotel with “Black Lives Matter.” http://bit.ly/2cM0eFt 

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The problem is that there are Lewy Bodies in Canada

 

Donald Trump repeatedly boasts about his properties during the first presidential debate. Link in bio.

A photo posted by The Daily Show (@thedailyshow) on Sep 27, 2016 at 11:23am PDT

This is the last straw. As if the specter of a Trump presidency weren’t enough motivation to flee to Canada?

This entry was posted in 2016 Election, Government, Media, Uncategorized and tagged . Bookmark the permalink.

9 Responses to Trump as existential threat & October supplies

  1. bron98 says:

    yes, government is needed. For the protection of life, liberty and property. A constitutionally limited government that provides courts, police, military and a few other things as provided for in our constitutio

    • Glad you see that basic truth about government, partner. BTW, we have missed your smiling face around here recently.

      I have had the TV on all morning, because I have friends in Florida. The governor said a while ago that President Obama is working with them to get several counties declared disaster areas. It appears they are not going to wait for it to wipe out the coastal counties before taking action. In cases like this, proactive is always better than reactive as we saw in the aftermath of Katrina.

  2. pete says:

    Yeah, it should get right lively here around 2:00am.

  3. Yeah, pete. What Chuck said. And remember that discretion is the better part of valor but doubly so when dealing with Mother Nature.

  4. pete says:

    Anybody need firewood?

  5. pete says:

    Around here not much of it will get used for firewood, most will be chipped at the land fill and given away as mulch.
    I didn’t take that many pictures, most of what I got was just the piles of limbs and pieces of trees on my street. I tried taking some of what’s left of the ceder tree in my front yard but it didn’t come out very well. Besides after reading Stormy Weather (Carl Hiaasen) I’m a bit leary of taking pictures of peoples houses after hurricanes. Don’t want to get kidnapped by a crazy one eyed ex-governor with a shock collar.

    After I cleaned up the Bird of Paradise tree in my front yard I found one really nice bloom that I posted on facebook. That was a big hit with the northern relatives, not many Bird of Paradise trees in North Dakota, I guess.

  6. I am not a big Donald Trump fan. However, calling him an existential threat is absurd.

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