Just a few observations:

In a recent article, I think Bill Palmer is reading it wrong. A battle hardened Admiral or General, Army or Marine, can not be intimidated or embarrassed by this guy. Could Nimitz, Puller, Patton, Bradley or Montgomery or any of the others be intimidated? In Donnie’s style, he can’t fire anyone, so the Generals are safe from Donnie, and they will not quit.

General Mattis (Wikipedia)

Mattis might be angry at him, but in no way was he intimidated. Any Marine fresh out of Boot Camp has had far more verbal and physical abuse than Donnie could dish out and they are laughing at him when they gather afterwards. He has created an enemy though, three of them, and he will regret it. It may be Mattis who escorts him out in a choke hold, if need be. All three Generals in Donnie’s staff will coordinate and support each other. We spoke before about McMaster – this is where he shines and is probably the leader of the pack, standing in the background. McMaster has kicked three out of the NSC so far and I expect between the three Generals, Donnie will loose his Nazi trio – Gorka, Bannon and Miller soon. Without his ear whispers, Donnie will be overwhelmed and become petrified into inaction. They will psyopp him into paralysis.

The snake handlers around here don’t have a good track record, a good percentage get bit and some die every year proving the serpents are our friends. A snake is a snake, and should not be thought of as pets, be they human or reptile.

I’ve been ruminating about the recent confrontational between the two third graders. Donnie is yelling at Un and Un is yelling back. I have decided this is really much ado about nothing, although if NK was a real world power like China or Russia, they could actually do something to us. But they can’t. SK, on the other hand is under the gun, literally, and will take the brunt if this shouting match gets out of hand.

I doubt NK has a nuke of any value nor a way to deliver it with any accuracy. I bet half of them won’t work properly, leaving a dirty bomb of low power if they try to use them. I don’t believe they can put a nuke on their missiles, and I doubt their missiles can hit anything at max range as they don’t have a reliable re-entry vehicle, nuke or not. The thermal image on their last reentry was too bright and faded into small bits at low altitude, so I doubt their reentry works very well, so far.

I think the biggest danger is our stuff, which I hope we can avoid using. If we do get into a fist fight with these things there their will be a million casualties along the DMZ, SK taking the most civilian casualties to artillery which historically has the most effect in producing the most devastation.

Most of the missiles that the NK folks are showing and launching are liquid fueled. Liquid fuel rockets don’t travel well so carting them around even gently on a 16 wheel transporter can do damage to the tanks. Empty, they lack structure to hold their shape and may be pressurized like a balloon, as was our SM-65 Atlas in the early days. Unpressurized, they collapse like a can made of aluminum foil.

So, cart them around, set them up and shoot. It may take hours to fuel them if transported empty.

Solid fuel rockets handle transport much better, so most of our missiles that we cart around are of that type and we put the liquid fueled missiles in silos. A silo can be seen in satellite images and targeted. Digging a silo system and launch complex takes time and leaves traces in before/after pictures. No word if silos have been identified in NK, so far. Bad news, if the NK folks are using TEL systems (not seen in the movies so far – just the pad) they can shoot and scoot, and are hard to find. Every broadcast of a missile launch shows a launch from an unprepared area such as flat ground in a valley or a meadow with trees in the background. As in the past under similar conditions, we may lead off with preemptive PGMs to kill the threat before a shot is fired by them. Once that starts though, it gets ugly fast.

I think that if Un shoots a missile across Japan in the direction of Guam, the alert aircraft will launch and will strike NK with non-nuke weapons, primarily at radar and comms facilities about an hour later. They will be in the air and on the way even if Guam was not the target.

Step one is to poke their eyes out with electronics and HARMs from EA-18Gs and F-16CJ/DJ Block 50D/52Ds. Step two is dropping sensor fused weapons that will target individual guns and tanks along the border dropped by fast movers such as F-15Es and F-16E/F block 60s at low altitude. Step three is to send the B-1B ‘Bones’ in low and B-2A ‘Ghosts’ in high with SLAM and JDAMs targeting C3 facilities that survived step one. Follow that with AC-130W ‘Spectres’ shooting up what is left along with the stragglers on foot. But by then, Seoul will take a beating from the artillery until they are KO’ed. No boots on the ground. Checkmate in 15 minutes. I doubt this will happen as I do not think Un is that stupid.

Crew members transferring a GBU-31 Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) to a lift truck for loading onto a B-1B on 29 March 2007, in Southwest Asia (USAF)

Donnie Two Scoops may have used up all of his good will with the landlords in the eastern Asian world. My guess is that the new kid on the block there is just as tiresome to them as is Donnie. Decades of diplomacy down the drain when two new guys have to show their dicks to each other and try out for tough guy of the week. It would be best if we could just pat him on his head, give him a bowl of kibble, give him his walk and put him back in his kennel. China and Japan have stepped up and will take the two kids aside and will calm the waters. Donnie wants China to take the lead, as he is incapable of negotiating with NK now that he has thrown down his best shot and can’t back pedal.

I have read several posts elsewhere about the upcoming civil war if Donnie is removed from office. I wonder if they have really thought that through. Gen. Mattis is in charge of the military and I don’t think he will support them. The kids in ‘Red Dawn’ had an idea about how to overcome the Russians, but I don’t think these lost souls realize the Apache helicopters that will come knocking on their doors will be very friendly. I would give the 3 Percenters half a day at best.

My bet all will be ‘normal’ in a few days once the adults take charge and send the kids to their rooms for a little ‘time out.’

About Terry Welshans

I grew up in Burbank, California. My dad worked at a company that made sub assemblies for about every airplane made in the 1960-1970 era, so it was only natural that the aviation bug bit me while I was quite young. I hold a commercial pilot certificate and fly as much as I can. I live in Bardstown, Kentucky with my wife, moving here after we retired. I am a Vietnam veteran and a cancer survivor. I like to keep politicians honest, and do so when they open an avenue where I feel they have erred.
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2 Responses to Just a few observations:

  1. Malisha says:

    I hope you’re right about the adults taking charge; it seems peculiar to be hoping for this particular kind of result, though. What occurs to me is that after an extended period of abnormalcy, it becomes harder and harder to regain the elusive NORMAL again. Our period of abnormalcy has been too long as is; that begins to take on a certain inexorable quality. I hope not but I fear so.

  2. The Chinese response seems measured. They say that if the US fires the first round, they will side with and support NK.

    If NK starts it, they are on their own if (and when) the US retaliates with the kind of strikes you describe. That puts Un on notice that he will be very much alone should he decide to pull a Saddam.

    The Chinese hope to get both sides to dial it back, because it is in their best interest to do so, both militarily and economically.

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