Naive, rather than critical realism is the norm in US politics at least at the Congressional level, where gerrymandering has given us GOP majorities, aside from some fairly obvious bias (see racism(sic)) as reflected in police shootings. Religion has little to do with it, even if tRumps’s described as a bloated narcissist. What is clear is that those who support him whether they will actually vote for him or not, are showing how “making bad judgments can be due to being unable to predict the actions of lesser informed parties. ”

Of course the published Trump plan on US-China trade policy differs from the stump version of Trump and now that the IMF has made the renminbi a reserve currency, Trump has yet to speak on what that means for his position on using rMoney’s 2012 stump plans to label a currency manipulator and the MSM seems unable to ask him why China practices “financial repression, or the government’s imposition of extremely low interest rates on the Chinese consumer.” One wonders where he would go on the issue of Chinese Muslims like the Uighurs. Too technical or archane for tRump’s many LIV followers and whose false consciousness is always combined in the usual identification on media constructions or memes floated by Trump rather than any close examination of his statements or even thinking about his politics. OTOH, as the polling in Iowa indicates, the RWNJs are now being whipped by even bigger idiots like Steve King into the Cruz camp.What we will get by the RNC convention will be something like the curse of anti-knowledge if the GOP base fails to follow the GOP’s one-percenters.

In social psychology, naive realism is the human tendency to believe that we see the world around us objectively, and that people who disagree with us must be uninformed, irrational, or biased. Naive realism provides a theoretical basis for several other cognitive biases, which are systematic errors in thinking and decision-making. These include the false consensus effect, actor-observer bias, bias blind spot, and fundamental attribution error, among others.

False polarization: Actual views (top), “circle’s” perception of views (middle), “triangle’s” perception of views (bottom). (Modeled after similar illustrations found in Robinson et al., 1995, and Ross & Ward, 1996.)

Dunning–Kruger effect

Dunning and Kruger proposed that, for a given skill, incompetent people will:

• fail to recognize their own lack of skill
• fail to recognize genuine skill in others
• fail to recognize the extent of their inadequacy
• recognize and acknowledge their own lack of skill, after they are exposed to training for that skill

Studies on the Dunning–Kruger effect tend to focus on American test subjects. A number of studies on East Asian subjects suggest that different social forces are at play in different cultures. For example, East Asians tend to underestimate their abilities and see underachievement as a chance to improve themselves and to get along with others.

The term “curse of knowledge” was coined in the Journal of Political Economy by economists Colin Camerer, George Loewenstein, and Martin Weber. The aim of their research was to document the idea that making bad judgments can be due to being unable to predict the actions of lesser informed parties. The economic impacts of this bias are described as two-fold: better informed parties may suffer losses in a deal when they should not, and that the curse of knowledge can somewhat cancel out market consequences resulting from information asymmetry, one party knowing more than the other and being at an advantage because of it.

The false-consensus effect is not necessarily restricted to cases where people believe that their values are shared by the majority. The false-consensus effect is also evidenced when people overestimate the extent to which their particular belief is correlated with the belief of others. Thus, fundamentalists do not necessarily believe that the majority of people share their views, but their estimates of the number of people who share their point of view will tend to exceed the actual number.